Mortgage Market Guide is pleased to present our annual forecast
By Barry Habib
Last year's forecast had anticipated some very odd happenings...but nothing to the extent of how the actual story unfolded, in what became a year of making history.
How did we do on our forecast last year?
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was confident that we were not heading into a recession and a down market . . . and we correctly disagreed.
We saw Stocks heading lower . . . and they did, actually to a much larger extent than we had expected. But our one Stock selection for last year did quite well, more than doubling in a short period of time.
We saw 2008 as being a year of high volatility . . . and that turned out to be an understatement.
We said the Fed would cut . . . but we were wrong as to the extent of those cuts, brought on by the financial crisis, also something we did not foresee.
We saw $4/gallon gasoline over the summer, and while many disagreed, our target price was correct.
We did well with our forecast for the Dollar and Gold prices, as well as how we anticipated the housing market to fare.
Most importantly, and for more than 11 months during 2008, our rate forecast was right on target, with the last few weeks seeing mortgage rates decline further than we had predicted at this time last year.
What next? As we enter 2009, here's what our crystal ball is showing us.
The economy will have a tough go once again during the coming year. But we do see things as being better than during 2008, with more optimism in the air by this time next year.
The Fed and the Treasury have and will continue to add lots of stimulus to our economy. It will just take some time for the "medicine" to work its way through the system. After hogging the spotlight with many different moves, we expect the Fed to be on hold with their interest rate policy throughout the majority of 2009. After all, there's no room to cut further, and we don't see a hike until economic conditions show signs of improvement. When a hike comes, we may all take it as a welcome sign that things are getting better.
The job market will get worse before it gets better, and don't be surprised to see the unemployment rate rise to 8% from its present 6.7% level before things start to improve.
We can safely predict, without much disagreement from anybody, that volatility will continue for Stocks, but we do see hints that there will be a significant first quarter rally. By the end of 2009, we forecast that Stock prices will see some handsome gains. This play on financials has a generous dividend yield, and stands to improve greatly should financials start to recover...and we think they will.
As I write this to you on 12/24, our stock picks for the year include UYG (Ultra Financials ProShares), which was trading around $5. This play on financials has a generous dividend yield, and stands to improve greatly should financials start to recover...and we think they will. We also liked VZ (Verizon), which currently is trading around $32, as strength in cell phone usage and an exploding fiber optics business see them standing to gain. Additionally, there is a juicy 6% dividend yield. One more we like is DIG (ProShares Ultra Oil and Gas), which was priced close to $25. Keep reading on our oil forecast to understand why we like this play.
As of mid-December, with oil around $36/barrel, we saw a great opportunity for the long term. Oil prices will rise over time, and have already started to climb, and patience will be greatly rewarded. The negative side effect from lower oil prices is that it has greatly diminished research and exploration into alternative energy sources, as well as investigating more costly extraction of fuel. For example, the oil-rich yet difficult to mine tar sands in Canada only make financial sense unless oil prices are over $70/barrel. And any other resources that are "boxed in" or require additional transportation costs may come offline at current oil prices. And once they are offline, there is a significant ramp up time to get them back. The irony in lower oil prices is that they may lead to much higher prices down the road.
Look for the Dollar to weaken a bit, but eventually strengthen as the US stabilizes while Europe declines a bit further.
On housing, we see 2009 as a period of price stabilization for most markets. One good gauge that home prices are stabilizing in your area is to figure a monthly payment with 20% down and compare that to rents for the same property. If it would actually be cheaper to purchase the home than to rent it - that's a good sign.
Home prices in some markets may still decline some during 2009, but those who make savvy purchases below market value should fare quite well, especially longer term. There's a lot of inventory on the market, which is viewed negatively, and needs to be sopped up before the housing market really turns. But...the inventory in the housing market does make this a fantastic time to be a buyer. Homebuyers will have a strong negotiating stance from the get-go, and are likely to make favorable deals, maybe even a once-in-lifetime deal. Those who buy a home and live in it for the long term will are likely to be rewarded handsomely. Let's face, people need homes. They are not going to start living in tents just because the economy is bad. We predict that consumers will start buying again in the coming year, particularly with attractive home loan rates and many homes to choose from.
Mortgage Rate Forecast ...How low can they go?
Early 2009 could very well mark the lowest rates that we will see for the rest of our lives. Think about that. More importantly, your customers should be thinking about that too. We expect interest rates to stay in a range of 4.5 - 5.5%, with the potential to see rates moving toward the higher part of the range later in the year.
The forecast for the beginning of the year is important of course, but count on us at Mortgage Market Guide to keep informing and advising you throughout the coming year. With so many of your competitors having dropped away, opportunities abound for those who are willing to stay positive and work hard. The question is not who is going to let you be successful . . . it's who is going to stop you.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
EXTRA EXTRA! CASTING CALL FOR ABC'S THE BACHELORETTE COMES TO DALLAS - JANUARY 7, 2009
ATTENTION LADIES & GENTLEMAN! ARE YOU STILL SEEKING FOR THAT SPECIAL MAN/WOMAN? WELL, THIS MAY JUST BE YOUR TIME!
The search is on for eligible women and men who are ready to find true love on the new season of The Bachelorette on ABC. One lucky lady is given the opportunity to find the man of her dreams – and hopefully her groom-to-be – in the popular primetime romantic reality series. Women who feel they possess the charm, style and personality to become America's next leading lady, or men who hope to be among her 25suitors, are invited to meet with the show’s casting producers on:
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7TH, 2009
FROM: 6:00-9:00PM
AT THE JOULE HOTEL - PM NIGHTLIFE LOUNGE
1530 MAIN STREET
DALLAS, TX 75202
PH: 214-748-1300
GOOD LUCK!!
P.S. NO, I WILL NOT BE THERE! :-)
(EXTRA EXTRA NEWS IS NEWS YOU CAN USE THAT IS NON-REAL ESTATE RELATED)
Friday, January 2, 2009
As mortgage rates slide, refinancing applications take off
The holidays can be slow in the mortgage business as consumers take a break to celebrate.
But at Gary Akright's Addison mortgage office, the phone is ringing off the wall.
The lowest loan interest rates in more than a generation have prompted thousands of homeowners to refinance.
But so far, there hasn't been a similar uptick in purchases. "We are seeing a lot of activity," said Akright, president of Dominion Mortgage Corp. "We are offering 30-year fixed rate loans at 4 7/8 percent right now, and that's great."
As home mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest point since the 1960s, the cost of financing a home has fallen more than a full percentage point since this time last year.
The drop results in savings of more than $100 a month on payments for a $150,000 loan.
No wonder applications to refinance homes have jumped more than 500 percent nationwide since October. So far, there has not been a similar jump in lending for home purchases. Loan application volumes for buying a house have risen less than 15 percent since mortgage rates took their dive.
Given the problems in the U.S. economy and worries about falling home values, it doesn't surprise analysts that the lower interest rates haven't kicked-started sales.
"Lower rates are certainly a factor, but they are only part of the solution to the housing issues," said Ted Wilson of Dallas-based Residential Strategies Inc. It's a given that most consumers don't buy houses when they're worried about their jobs or think prices are going down.
"Consumers are hesitant to make big-ticket item purchases when there is so much uncertainty with the economy," Wilson said. "The fact is that, for those who can qualify, there are some exceptional bargains available in the market, and finance costs are at record lows."
The increase in home refinancings will be a boost to the U.S. economy, said veteran housing industry analyst David Berson of PMI Group. "This will allow some people to increase their spending, which is not a bad thing for the economy," Berson said. Bigger wave ahead?
And there is the potential for an even bigger refinancing wave in the weeks ahead, he said.
"It takes people awhile to realize interest rates have changed," Berson said. "If rates stay at this level or move lower, we will see additional pickups in loan applications."
Unlike previous markets, not everyone will be able to take advantage of the mortgage rates – even if they go lower. Lenders are more demanding than they've been in years.
"Applications don't mean people will be qualified," Berson said.
Grapevine mortgage consultant Billy Parker said he's been "overwhelmed with applications the past couple of weeks."But he warns that borrowers "still need good credit for the most part."
Economists are cautious in their expectations of the recent mortgage rate drops.
"The reason I don't think the lower interest rates will work is I don't think interest rates are the issue," said James Gaines, an economist with Texas A&M University's Real Estate Center. "We've already had historically low interest rates. "The thing affecting the ability of people to buy is the tighter loan underwriting standards and – more important – requirements of larger down payments." The need for more money up front has made it tougher for first-time buyers.
And people buying houses priced above $417,000 will find that lenders want to charge them up to three percentage points more in interest. "The jumbo rates are still so high because the lenders can't sell that paper" to investors who got burned in the home loan market, Gaines said.
Neighborhood values for homeowners who decide to refinance, advisers point out that home values have declined in some neighborhoods, which could make it harder to obtain a new loan.
With thousands of layoffs during the last couple of years in the mortgage business, there are a lot fewer workers to handle the increased application volume. "We are starting to get some real backups in the processing," Akright said.
courtesty of steve brown/DMN
But at Gary Akright's Addison mortgage office, the phone is ringing off the wall.
The lowest loan interest rates in more than a generation have prompted thousands of homeowners to refinance.
But so far, there hasn't been a similar uptick in purchases. "We are seeing a lot of activity," said Akright, president of Dominion Mortgage Corp. "We are offering 30-year fixed rate loans at 4 7/8 percent right now, and that's great."
As home mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest point since the 1960s, the cost of financing a home has fallen more than a full percentage point since this time last year.
The drop results in savings of more than $100 a month on payments for a $150,000 loan.
No wonder applications to refinance homes have jumped more than 500 percent nationwide since October. So far, there has not been a similar jump in lending for home purchases. Loan application volumes for buying a house have risen less than 15 percent since mortgage rates took their dive.
Given the problems in the U.S. economy and worries about falling home values, it doesn't surprise analysts that the lower interest rates haven't kicked-started sales.
"Lower rates are certainly a factor, but they are only part of the solution to the housing issues," said Ted Wilson of Dallas-based Residential Strategies Inc. It's a given that most consumers don't buy houses when they're worried about their jobs or think prices are going down.
"Consumers are hesitant to make big-ticket item purchases when there is so much uncertainty with the economy," Wilson said. "The fact is that, for those who can qualify, there are some exceptional bargains available in the market, and finance costs are at record lows."
The increase in home refinancings will be a boost to the U.S. economy, said veteran housing industry analyst David Berson of PMI Group. "This will allow some people to increase their spending, which is not a bad thing for the economy," Berson said. Bigger wave ahead?
And there is the potential for an even bigger refinancing wave in the weeks ahead, he said.
"It takes people awhile to realize interest rates have changed," Berson said. "If rates stay at this level or move lower, we will see additional pickups in loan applications."
Unlike previous markets, not everyone will be able to take advantage of the mortgage rates – even if they go lower. Lenders are more demanding than they've been in years.
"Applications don't mean people will be qualified," Berson said.
Grapevine mortgage consultant Billy Parker said he's been "overwhelmed with applications the past couple of weeks."But he warns that borrowers "still need good credit for the most part."
Economists are cautious in their expectations of the recent mortgage rate drops.
"The reason I don't think the lower interest rates will work is I don't think interest rates are the issue," said James Gaines, an economist with Texas A&M University's Real Estate Center. "We've already had historically low interest rates. "The thing affecting the ability of people to buy is the tighter loan underwriting standards and – more important – requirements of larger down payments." The need for more money up front has made it tougher for first-time buyers.
And people buying houses priced above $417,000 will find that lenders want to charge them up to three percentage points more in interest. "The jumbo rates are still so high because the lenders can't sell that paper" to investors who got burned in the home loan market, Gaines said.
Neighborhood values for homeowners who decide to refinance, advisers point out that home values have declined in some neighborhoods, which could make it harder to obtain a new loan.
With thousands of layoffs during the last couple of years in the mortgage business, there are a lot fewer workers to handle the increased application volume. "We are starting to get some real backups in the processing," Akright said.
courtesty of steve brown/DMN
Thursday, January 1, 2009
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Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Fed cuts key interest rate to historic low...may be good timing to refinancing your home & great timing for home buyers to lock in!
The Federal Reserve entered a new era Tuesday, lowering its benchmark interest rate virtually to zero — for the first time in its 95-year history — and declaring that it will now fight the recession by pumping out vast amounts of money to businesses and consumers through an expanding array of new programs.
Q: What's the good news in the Fed's actions?
A: The Fed's decision to nudge its key fed funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25% — along with its plans to buy securities that are backed by mortgages — should mean lower consumer interest rates, particularly mortgage rates. Low mortgage rates mean that more people can afford to buy houses, which will help revive the moribund housing market. A drop in mortgage rates will also allow homeowners to refinance their loans at lower rates, easing some of the burdens of their debts. Low rates also make it cheaper for companies to borrow and expand. That, in turn, is a powerful economic stimulus. Most major banks, including Bank of America and Wachovia, lowered their prime lending rate to 3.25% from 4% Tuesday.
Q: What's the bad news?
A: The Fed wouldn't lower rates this far and signal its willingness to take a host of unconventional actions if the economic situation weren't so dire. The nation is entering the 13th month of a recession, and the unemployment rate hit 6.7% in November, up from 4.7% a year earlier. The Fed is worried about an extremely severe recession and the outlying possibility of deflation — a persistent decline in prices. In a deflationary period, the value of assets falls, but debt payments become more onerous. At this point, deflation is not a major concern. But the Fed is monitoring conditions.
A: The Fed wouldn't lower rates this far and signal its willingness to take a host of unconventional actions if the economic situation weren't so dire. The nation is entering the 13th month of a recession, and the unemployment rate hit 6.7% in November, up from 4.7% a year earlier. The Fed is worried about an extremely severe recession and the outlying possibility of deflation — a persistent decline in prices. In a deflationary period, the value of assets falls, but debt payments become more onerous. At this point, deflation is not a major concern. But the Fed is monitoring conditions.
Q: Aren't such low rates and policies inflationary?
A: In theory, they can be. But at the moment, inflation is deader than King Tut. The government's consumer price index fell 1.7% in November, the second-consecutive record decrease.
A: In theory, they can be. But at the moment, inflation is deader than King Tut. The government's consumer price index fell 1.7% in November, the second-consecutive record decrease.
Q: Will lower rates hurt the U.S. dollar?
A: They did on Tuesday: The dollar weakened against the euro and Japan's yen. Should those countries lower their interest rates, however, the dollar would likely rebound. Money typically flows to the currencies with the highest interest rates and the greatest safety.
A: They did on Tuesday: The dollar weakened against the euro and Japan's yen. Should those countries lower their interest rates, however, the dollar would likely rebound. Money typically flows to the currencies with the highest interest rates and the greatest safety.
Q: The Fed has never targeted an interest rate range before. Why now?
A: More as a practical matter than anything else. A zero-percent interest rate is hard to achieve. The range gives them a small margin of error. Further, as the Fed has dramatically expanded lending to financial firms and its balance sheet, it has also become harder to manage the funds rate.
Q: Does the Fed have a target in mind for mortgage rates?
A: No, but there's little doubt that the Fed would like lower mortgage rates, which is why the Fed is considering buying mortgage-backed securities.
If banks can sell their mortgage loans to investors — including the Fed — they will have more money to make new mortgages. A senior Fed official, who would not speak for attribution, told reporters Tuesday that it could be self-defeating for the Fed to set a target for mortgage rates. Instead, the Fed will monitor housing and economic developments to determine future actions.
Q: What does this mean for savers?
A: Lower returns. Rates on bank CDs and money market mutual funds closely follow the fed funds rate. Money funds, which invest in short-term, interest-bearing securities and distribute the income to investors, might be particularly squeezed. The average taxable money fund aimed at individual investors charges 0.86% a year in expenses. Three-month Treasury bills yield 0.03%.
Q: What is the Fed trying to do?
A: The Fed is pulling out all the stops to revive business and consumer lending and get the economy moving. The central bank is particularly focused on the wide difference, or spread, on interest rates between supersafe Treasury bills, for example, and market-based loans for autos, homes and other purchases.
Fed officials think the wide spreads are due to a lack of liquidity, as lenders pull back. They hope that by flooding markets with cash, using such strategies as buying mortgage-backed bonds, they can bring interest rates down and relieve such pressures.
The Fed has so far confined its programs to making loans by using high-grade securities as collateral. It could consider dipping into some riskier markets going forward, but only with backing from the Treasury Department to absorb some losses.
In summary, if you are a homeowner that has been waiting to refinance your home, now may be the perfect time! And if you are a home buyer, now may be a good time to lock in!
article courtesy of USA Today
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Looking to live in the best suburb within DFW? consider Southlake!
According to Forbes Magazine, Southlake Texas is considered the most affluent neighborhood in the country with an estimated median household income of $172,945 and real estate growth. Since 2005, the area doubled its town square shopping center, which increased jobs and community revenue, thus bolstering the median household income by over $42,000 since the 2000 census.
Brian J.L. Berry, dean of the School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences at the University of Texas at Dallas, says that what separates Southlake from its white-collar counterparts is undoubtedly its town square. "It is an upscale community with an expression of that status in its town square," says Berry. "If there is anything special about the suburb, it is that square."
The only problem is that there's not much room for Southlake to grow. Add to that the highest nationwide unemployment rate in 14 years and the second-lowest level of consumer confidence in 34 years, and it's clear that even neighborhoods like Southlake have the potential to be affected by the recession in some way.
Southlake currently has a number of available homes on the market priced to sell so if you are looking for the best of the best in the DFW area, then Southlake it is. Within minutes to Dallas and other surrounding cities, this town offers a great place to live with exemplary schools, lots of shopping and many family fun filled events.
To get a report on Southlake with available homes on the market, contact me.
Brian J.L. Berry, dean of the School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences at the University of Texas at Dallas, says that what separates Southlake from its white-collar counterparts is undoubtedly its town square. "It is an upscale community with an expression of that status in its town square," says Berry. "If there is anything special about the suburb, it is that square."
The only problem is that there's not much room for Southlake to grow. Add to that the highest nationwide unemployment rate in 14 years and the second-lowest level of consumer confidence in 34 years, and it's clear that even neighborhoods like Southlake have the potential to be affected by the recession in some way.
Southlake currently has a number of available homes on the market priced to sell so if you are looking for the best of the best in the DFW area, then Southlake it is. Within minutes to Dallas and other surrounding cities, this town offers a great place to live with exemplary schools, lots of shopping and many family fun filled events.
To get a report on Southlake with available homes on the market, contact me.
Fannie Mae Restricts Entertainment Expenses for staff
I found this story to be interesting from CBS 11 News:
Fannie Mae CEO Herb Allison announced a new policy Tuesday restricting all entertainment spending for customers and employees, including meals, sporting events and holiday parties. The action comes after a CBS 11 investigation revealed executives from Fannie Mae spent more than $6200 at the Cowboys Golf Club in Grapevine during a September 29th outing. Receipts and documents obtained by CBS 11 show executives from Dallas, Chicago and Washington, DC were treated to golf with a mango towel service, food and hundreds of dollars worth of beer, wine and liquor.The outing came just 22 days after the federal government took over Fannie and pledged at least $200 billion in taxpayer funds to save the massive mortgage company from failure. CBS 11 brought the issue to Texas Congressman Jeb Hensarling, who sits on the committee that now oversees Fannie Mae. At the time, Hersarling said he was outraged and would call for an investigation.One day after the CBS 11 report aired, Hensarling sent a letter to U.S. House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank and demanded an investigation into the activities uncovered by CBS 11. And in response, Fannie Mae's CEO sent this letter to Congressman Hensarling:
Dear Congressman Hensarling:Chairman Frank forwarded to me your letter to him of November 4, 2008, regarding travel and entertainment expenses for a Fannie Mae customer event in Grapevine, Texas, in late September. I feel that I should respond to you personally. In the first weeks of our conservatorship, we began a sweeping transformation of the way Fannie Mae does business in order to align our practices with the interests of taxpayers and homeowners. One element of this change was dramatically reducing or eliminating, as appropriate, expenditures in the areas of lobbying, entertainment, sponsorships, meetings and events, and certain charitable activities. While we were making these cutbacks, our firm wide review did not identify the event in Dallas. We regret that oversight, we were highly embarrassed by it, and we took immediate action to prevent a recurrence. We imposed a moratorium on all entertainment expenses for customers or employees including meals, sporting events, and holiday parties as Fannie Mae completed a comprehensive assessment of all such expenditures and activities.
Fannie Mae CEO Herb Allison announced a new policy Tuesday restricting all entertainment spending for customers and employees, including meals, sporting events and holiday parties. The action comes after a CBS 11 investigation revealed executives from Fannie Mae spent more than $6200 at the Cowboys Golf Club in Grapevine during a September 29th outing. Receipts and documents obtained by CBS 11 show executives from Dallas, Chicago and Washington, DC were treated to golf with a mango towel service, food and hundreds of dollars worth of beer, wine and liquor.The outing came just 22 days after the federal government took over Fannie and pledged at least $200 billion in taxpayer funds to save the massive mortgage company from failure. CBS 11 brought the issue to Texas Congressman Jeb Hensarling, who sits on the committee that now oversees Fannie Mae. At the time, Hersarling said he was outraged and would call for an investigation.One day after the CBS 11 report aired, Hensarling sent a letter to U.S. House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank and demanded an investigation into the activities uncovered by CBS 11. And in response, Fannie Mae's CEO sent this letter to Congressman Hensarling:
Dear Congressman Hensarling:Chairman Frank forwarded to me your letter to him of November 4, 2008, regarding travel and entertainment expenses for a Fannie Mae customer event in Grapevine, Texas, in late September. I feel that I should respond to you personally. In the first weeks of our conservatorship, we began a sweeping transformation of the way Fannie Mae does business in order to align our practices with the interests of taxpayers and homeowners. One element of this change was dramatically reducing or eliminating, as appropriate, expenditures in the areas of lobbying, entertainment, sponsorships, meetings and events, and certain charitable activities. While we were making these cutbacks, our firm wide review did not identify the event in Dallas. We regret that oversight, we were highly embarrassed by it, and we took immediate action to prevent a recurrence. We imposed a moratorium on all entertainment expenses for customers or employees including meals, sporting events, and holiday parties as Fannie Mae completed a comprehensive assessment of all such expenditures and activities.
The freeze was strictly enforced and continually communicated to all managers at the company.On November 26th, we replaced the moratorium with a new policy that is appropriate to Fannie Mae's current circumstances. It includes new restrictions and supervisory controls on gifts and entertainment whether provided by or offered to any company employee.The new policy was reviewed and approved by our federal regulator and Conservator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The policy will be strictly enforced.Let me assure you that our management team is constantly striving to serve the public interest more efficiently and effectively and gratefully welcomes ideas on how we can perform better.Please contact me if you have questions.Sincerely,Herbert M. Allison, Jr.
Today, Congressman Hensarling responded to Fannie Mae's new policy, saying "Mr. Allison expressed regret about the September golf outing and promised financial accountability within his organization. I appreciate Mr. Allison taking responsibility for the mistake and am satisfied with the decision to cease all recreational spending. I also want to thank Chairman Frank for his immediate attention to the matter. Congress will continue to monitor the situation to ensure that no more taxpayer money is wasted by the mortgage giant."
Today, Congressman Hensarling responded to Fannie Mae's new policy, saying "Mr. Allison expressed regret about the September golf outing and promised financial accountability within his organization. I appreciate Mr. Allison taking responsibility for the mistake and am satisfied with the decision to cease all recreational spending. I also want to thank Chairman Frank for his immediate attention to the matter. Congress will continue to monitor the situation to ensure that no more taxpayer money is wasted by the mortgage giant."
Monday, December 15, 2008
Commercial foreclosures increase in Dallas-Fort Worth
As foreclosures across the nation and in North Texas continue to mount, commercial properties have begun to pile up as well.
According to a report released by Foreclosure Listing Service Inc., Dallas-Fort Worth commercial real estate foreclosure postings have increased 32 percent above the same time a year ago. To date, 1,918 postings were filed on commercial properties in the area compared to the 1,458 for the same period in 2007.
However, George Roddy Sr., president of Foreclosure Listing Service, made note that commercial real estate foreclosure postings filed represented just 4 percent of the total postings recorded this year in the Metroplex.
“Of the approximately 53,400 total postings filed in 2008, just 1,918 of those were filed on commercial properties,” Roddy said. “These included postings of all types of commercial real estate such as retail centers, retail buildings, office buildings, industrial buildings, apartment complexes, unimproved commercial land and miscellaneous commercial buildings.”
Foreclosure postings of commercial real estate climbed at a steeper rate than residential postings for the area, jumping 32 percent this year compared to 2007 compared to a 17 percent increase for residential properties over those filed last year.
“Thankfully, this does not mean that the commercial property market is in big trouble,” Roddy said. “The largest share of commercial properties posted for foreclosure this year due to a mortgage delinquency has involved miscellaneous buildings that were smaller, older and in less desirable locations. There does not appear to be an alarming number of postings among the quality commercial properties.”
Roddy said one of the most significant differences between commercial foreclosure posting activity in today’s market compared to the real estate crash of the late 1980s is the quality of properties being posted.
“In the late 1980s, I saw a significant amount of signature, Class A properties posted for foreclosure,” he said. “But today, the vast majority of the commercial properties posted for foreclosure are either Class C properties or miscellaneous commercial buildings.”
Commercial Land
Postings filed on undeveloped, commercial tracts of land surged 65 percent above the previous year with 321 postings filed on raw land in the Metroplex in 2008 compared to 195 recordings in 2007
Postings of commercial land represented 17 percent of the total commercial foreclosure posting activity this year.
Apartments
Ranking second in highest gain, apartment communities experienced a 35 percent jump in foreclosure postings. This year, 347 postings were filed on apartment communities in Dallas-Fort Worth compared to 257 notices a year ago.
Foreclosure postings filed on apartment complexes equaled 18 percent of the Metro’s total commercial posting activity this year.
Industrial Buildings
Postings of Dallas-Fort Worth industrial buildings have climbed 32 percent higher than those filed last year with 148 postings for 2008 compared to 112 filed for the same period a year ago.
Postings of industrial buildings equated 8 percent of the total commercial posting activity for the year.
Office Buildings
In 2008, 119 postings were filed on Dallas-Fort Worth office buildings compared to 103 notices for this same period last year, accounting for a 16 percent gain.
Postings of area office buildings accounted for 6 percent of the total commercial postings filed this year.
Retail Buildings/centers
The lowest gain in posting activity among the commercial property types was a 15 percent increase in postings filed on Dallas-Fort Worth retail buildings/centers. In 2008, 135 postings were filed on retail buildings/centers compared to 117 notices in 2007.
Notices filed on retail building/centers comprised 7 percent of the total commercial postings filed in 2008.
courtesy of aleshia howe
According to a report released by Foreclosure Listing Service Inc., Dallas-Fort Worth commercial real estate foreclosure postings have increased 32 percent above the same time a year ago. To date, 1,918 postings were filed on commercial properties in the area compared to the 1,458 for the same period in 2007.
However, George Roddy Sr., president of Foreclosure Listing Service, made note that commercial real estate foreclosure postings filed represented just 4 percent of the total postings recorded this year in the Metroplex.
“Of the approximately 53,400 total postings filed in 2008, just 1,918 of those were filed on commercial properties,” Roddy said. “These included postings of all types of commercial real estate such as retail centers, retail buildings, office buildings, industrial buildings, apartment complexes, unimproved commercial land and miscellaneous commercial buildings.”
Foreclosure postings of commercial real estate climbed at a steeper rate than residential postings for the area, jumping 32 percent this year compared to 2007 compared to a 17 percent increase for residential properties over those filed last year.
“Thankfully, this does not mean that the commercial property market is in big trouble,” Roddy said. “The largest share of commercial properties posted for foreclosure this year due to a mortgage delinquency has involved miscellaneous buildings that were smaller, older and in less desirable locations. There does not appear to be an alarming number of postings among the quality commercial properties.”
Roddy said one of the most significant differences between commercial foreclosure posting activity in today’s market compared to the real estate crash of the late 1980s is the quality of properties being posted.
“In the late 1980s, I saw a significant amount of signature, Class A properties posted for foreclosure,” he said. “But today, the vast majority of the commercial properties posted for foreclosure are either Class C properties or miscellaneous commercial buildings.”
Commercial Land
Postings filed on undeveloped, commercial tracts of land surged 65 percent above the previous year with 321 postings filed on raw land in the Metroplex in 2008 compared to 195 recordings in 2007
Postings of commercial land represented 17 percent of the total commercial foreclosure posting activity this year.
Apartments
Ranking second in highest gain, apartment communities experienced a 35 percent jump in foreclosure postings. This year, 347 postings were filed on apartment communities in Dallas-Fort Worth compared to 257 notices a year ago.
Foreclosure postings filed on apartment complexes equaled 18 percent of the Metro’s total commercial posting activity this year.
Industrial Buildings
Postings of Dallas-Fort Worth industrial buildings have climbed 32 percent higher than those filed last year with 148 postings for 2008 compared to 112 filed for the same period a year ago.
Postings of industrial buildings equated 8 percent of the total commercial posting activity for the year.
Office Buildings
In 2008, 119 postings were filed on Dallas-Fort Worth office buildings compared to 103 notices for this same period last year, accounting for a 16 percent gain.
Postings of area office buildings accounted for 6 percent of the total commercial postings filed this year.
Retail Buildings/centers
The lowest gain in posting activity among the commercial property types was a 15 percent increase in postings filed on Dallas-Fort Worth retail buildings/centers. In 2008, 135 postings were filed on retail buildings/centers compared to 117 notices in 2007.
Notices filed on retail building/centers comprised 7 percent of the total commercial postings filed in 2008.
courtesy of aleshia howe
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Financial industry pushes for lower mortgage rates
Financial industry lobbyists are urging the Treasury Department to take steps to lower mortgage rates and help stabilize the battered U.S. housing market.
Under one proposal, Treasury would seek to lower the rate on a 30-year mortgage to 4.5 percent by purchasing mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Scott Talbott, chief lobbyist at the Financial Services Roundtable, said Wednesday.
If enacted, such a plan would be an unprecedented opportunity for anyone with good credit and a solid income who could qualify for a mortgage at the lowest rates on records dating to the early 1960s, said Keith Gumbinger, senior vice president at financial publisher HSH Associates.
"You would have the mother of all re-fi booms," said mortgage industry consultant Howard Glaser.
The goal of the industry's proposal would be to take advantage of the unusually large difference, or spread, between mortgage rates and yields on government debt. On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note yield sank as low as 2.65 percent, while the national average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgages was 5.75 percent, according to HSH Associates.
In recent years, there has been about a 1.8 percentage point difference between the yield on a 10-year Treasury note and a 30-year mortgage rate, but that spread currently hovers around 3 percentage points.
Analysts said that the government could use its ability to borrow money at low rates to in essence flood the market for mortgage-backed securities. This increased demand would tend to push down the yield on mortgage securities sold by Fannie and Freddie, which now average about 5.5 percent because of investor concerns about default risks. Once those yields fall, the theory goes, lower mortgage rates should follow.
That would have two benefits for the economy: Immediately adding money to the pocketbooks of homeowners who can refinance their mortgages and reduce their monthly payments, and eventually help arrest the slide in home prices since much lower mortgage rates would allow more potential buyers to qualify for loans.
"The goal is drive mortgage rates so low that home prices not only stop falling but begin to rebound," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
If the government does buy up mortgage securities, it would be similar to the effort announced last week by the Federal Reserve to purchase up to $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie and Freddie. The two mortgage giants, which were seized by federal regulators in September, own or guarantee about half of the $11.5 trillion in U.S. outstanding home loan debt.
The Fed, however, did not announce a specific target for mortgage rates, which plunged about a half percentage point after the announcement.
That caused new mortgage applications to more than double last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey released Wednesday. Refinance volume more than tripled, and made up for nearly 70 percent of all applications.
Still, the industry plan is not likely to help borrowers whose credit is so damaged that banks don't want to lend to them.
"It doesn't do anything to help all the borrowers facing foreclosures," said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication. "It's going to benefit the people who have equity in their home, who have decent credit and can refinance."
Treasury is considering several options, and could announce a decision as early as next week, industry sources said.
Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said she would not comment on speculation about actions the department may take in the future.
The proposal was reported Wednesday afternoon on The Wall Street Journal's Web site.
Treasury could make such a proposal as part of a request for the second $350 billion of the $700 billion financial rescue fund, industry sources said.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been criticized by members of Congress for using the bailout money to shore up Wall Street banks, while not doing enough to help homeowners facing foreclosure.
In recent weeks, a diverse set of industry groups from real estate agents to carpet makers have called on lawmakers and the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama to subsidize lower mortgage rates and beef up tax credits to help stimulate housing demand.
The National Association of Realtors has been pushing a plan under which the federal government would spend $50 billion to lower mortgage rates. It says doing so would yield about 500,000 more home sales.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders is leading a new "Fix Housing First" coalition to push for aid to the ailing housing sector, including a tax credit of up to $22,000 for anyone who buys a home before the end of 2009.
courtesy of Associated Press
Under one proposal, Treasury would seek to lower the rate on a 30-year mortgage to 4.5 percent by purchasing mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Scott Talbott, chief lobbyist at the Financial Services Roundtable, said Wednesday.
If enacted, such a plan would be an unprecedented opportunity for anyone with good credit and a solid income who could qualify for a mortgage at the lowest rates on records dating to the early 1960s, said Keith Gumbinger, senior vice president at financial publisher HSH Associates.
"You would have the mother of all re-fi booms," said mortgage industry consultant Howard Glaser.
The goal of the industry's proposal would be to take advantage of the unusually large difference, or spread, between mortgage rates and yields on government debt. On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note yield sank as low as 2.65 percent, while the national average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgages was 5.75 percent, according to HSH Associates.
In recent years, there has been about a 1.8 percentage point difference between the yield on a 10-year Treasury note and a 30-year mortgage rate, but that spread currently hovers around 3 percentage points.
Analysts said that the government could use its ability to borrow money at low rates to in essence flood the market for mortgage-backed securities. This increased demand would tend to push down the yield on mortgage securities sold by Fannie and Freddie, which now average about 5.5 percent because of investor concerns about default risks. Once those yields fall, the theory goes, lower mortgage rates should follow.
That would have two benefits for the economy: Immediately adding money to the pocketbooks of homeowners who can refinance their mortgages and reduce their monthly payments, and eventually help arrest the slide in home prices since much lower mortgage rates would allow more potential buyers to qualify for loans.
"The goal is drive mortgage rates so low that home prices not only stop falling but begin to rebound," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
If the government does buy up mortgage securities, it would be similar to the effort announced last week by the Federal Reserve to purchase up to $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie and Freddie. The two mortgage giants, which were seized by federal regulators in September, own or guarantee about half of the $11.5 trillion in U.S. outstanding home loan debt.
The Fed, however, did not announce a specific target for mortgage rates, which plunged about a half percentage point after the announcement.
That caused new mortgage applications to more than double last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey released Wednesday. Refinance volume more than tripled, and made up for nearly 70 percent of all applications.
Still, the industry plan is not likely to help borrowers whose credit is so damaged that banks don't want to lend to them.
"It doesn't do anything to help all the borrowers facing foreclosures," said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication. "It's going to benefit the people who have equity in their home, who have decent credit and can refinance."
Treasury is considering several options, and could announce a decision as early as next week, industry sources said.
Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said she would not comment on speculation about actions the department may take in the future.
The proposal was reported Wednesday afternoon on The Wall Street Journal's Web site.
Treasury could make such a proposal as part of a request for the second $350 billion of the $700 billion financial rescue fund, industry sources said.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been criticized by members of Congress for using the bailout money to shore up Wall Street banks, while not doing enough to help homeowners facing foreclosure.
In recent weeks, a diverse set of industry groups from real estate agents to carpet makers have called on lawmakers and the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama to subsidize lower mortgage rates and beef up tax credits to help stimulate housing demand.
The National Association of Realtors has been pushing a plan under which the federal government would spend $50 billion to lower mortgage rates. It says doing so would yield about 500,000 more home sales.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders is leading a new "Fix Housing First" coalition to push for aid to the ailing housing sector, including a tax credit of up to $22,000 for anyone who buys a home before the end of 2009.
courtesy of Associated Press
Monday, December 1, 2008
Foreclosures in Texas DECLINE
Foreclosures in Texas have declined during the month of November, and are also down compared with the same month last year. For Sellers thats great news and for some buyers thats not so good news. Sellers now have an opportunity to sell their property closer to market value without the high competition of foreclosures. Buyers such as investors may want to consider buying soon.
According to a November report released Thursday by Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, a total of 7,843 homes in Texas entered the foreclosure process, a 20 percent drop from October 2008 filings and a 32 percent decline from filings from the same month last year.
In Dallas, 5,719 properties are listed for foreclosure by RealtyTrac, with 4,638 listed in Fort Worth, 2,035 in Arlington and 809 in Plano.
Nationwide, foreclosure filings fell 7 percent from October postings but rose 28 percent compared with the same month last year. According to the report, 1 in every 488 households in the U.S. were in foreclosure in November.
“Foreclosure activity in November hit the lowest level we’ve seen since June thanks in part to recently enacted laws that have extended the foreclosure process in some states, along with more aggressive loan modification programs and self-imposed holiday foreclosure moratoriums introduced by some lenders,” said James Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac. “There are several indications, however, that this lower activity is simply a temporary lull before another foreclosure storm hits in the coming months.”
Saccacio said delinquencies on loans not yet in the foreclosure process jumped to nearly 7 percent in the third quarter, which is a record high according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Many of those delinquencies could translate to more foreclosures in 2009, he said.
courtesy of Dallas Business Journal
According to a November report released Thursday by Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, a total of 7,843 homes in Texas entered the foreclosure process, a 20 percent drop from October 2008 filings and a 32 percent decline from filings from the same month last year.
In Dallas, 5,719 properties are listed for foreclosure by RealtyTrac, with 4,638 listed in Fort Worth, 2,035 in Arlington and 809 in Plano.
Nationwide, foreclosure filings fell 7 percent from October postings but rose 28 percent compared with the same month last year. According to the report, 1 in every 488 households in the U.S. were in foreclosure in November.
“Foreclosure activity in November hit the lowest level we’ve seen since June thanks in part to recently enacted laws that have extended the foreclosure process in some states, along with more aggressive loan modification programs and self-imposed holiday foreclosure moratoriums introduced by some lenders,” said James Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac. “There are several indications, however, that this lower activity is simply a temporary lull before another foreclosure storm hits in the coming months.”
Saccacio said delinquencies on loans not yet in the foreclosure process jumped to nearly 7 percent in the third quarter, which is a record high according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Many of those delinquencies could translate to more foreclosures in 2009, he said.
courtesy of Dallas Business Journal
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